Community Clean-up of a Big River-borne Trash Pile Sponsored by Friends of the Santa Cruz River
WHEN: Saturday, January 27, 9 AM to 12:30 PM
WHERE: Behind the Tumacacori Mesquite Sawmill in Carmen, between Tubac and Tumacacori, #2007 East Frontage Road
DETAILS: wear long pants, sturdy shoes, gloves, hat. Bring a reusable water bottle please!Warning: uneven terrain and other possible hazards! Not suitable for small children. We will supply refill water, trash bags, gloves, “grabbers” and other equipment, snacks, safety training and coordination.
PARTNERS: Anza Trail Coalition, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality, Santa Cruz County, Tumacacori Mesquite Sawmill, and many caring individuals.
PARKING: You will be directed at the Mesquite Sawmill gates
Friends of the Santa Cruz River has been concerned for some time that the binational sewage pipe, the International Outfall Interceptor (IOI), could be breached by floods in the Nogales Wash under which it lies. A pipe break would spill raw sewage into the communities of Nogales, Rio Rico, Tubac and further north along the Santa Cruz River. Our warning is encapsulated in a short video we had made and started distributing earlier this year, called “Flirting With Disaster“.
We are sad to say this eventuality has now come to pass. The waters of the Wash and the Santa Cruz River into which it flows are now heavily contaminated. An easy fix is not in sight; and even when repairs to this breach are eventually made, there is a good likelihood that a similar disaster will happen again somewhere else along the 9-mile IOI, possibly even this summer.
Although the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) has developed a plan to insert a resin sleeve into the existing IOI, and FOSCR supports this repair strategy, it will not solve the persistent problem of the location of the IOI.
This binational sewage pipe must be removed from the bed of the Wash if future public health disasters like this one are to be avoided in the future. IOI relocation will not come cheap or easy. However, barring a major overhaul of the entire Nogales Wash watershed (most of which is in Mexico), repeated erosive floods will inevitably threaten the IOI with rupture and thus threaten the health of all Santa Cruz County residents as well as the ecological health of the Santa Cruz River ecosystem. Furthermore, since most of Santa Cruz County’s residents depend for their drinking water on the aquifer that underlies the river, our drinking water supply also faces a long-term and significant threat from repeated discharges of contaminated water into the river.
This is a matter of true national security; if we don’t have clean drinking water and are not protected from public health threats, how secure are we? The IBWC must take responsibility for this border crisis and first, repair the IOI. But second and more importantly, they must get the IOI out of the Nogales Wash.
The nation’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead on the Arizona/Nevada border and Lake Powell on the Arizona/Utah border, were brim full in the year 2000. Four short years later, they had lost enough water to supply California its legally apportioned share of Colorado River water for more than five years. Now, 17 years later, they still have not recovered.
This ongoing, unprecedented event threatens water supplies to Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Tucson, Denver, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque and some of the most productive agricultural lands anywhere in the world. It is critical to understand what is causing it so water managers can make realistic water use and conservation plans.
While overuse has played a part, a significant portion of the reservoir decline is due to an ongoing drought, which started in 2000 and has led to substantial reductions in river flows. Most droughts are caused by a lack of precipitation. However, our published research shows that about one-third of the flow decline was likely due to higher temperatures in the Colorado River’s Upper Basin, which result from climate change.
This distinction matters because climate change is causing long-term warming that will continue for centuries. As the current “hot drought” shows, climate change-induced warming has the potential to make all droughts more serious, turning what would have been modest droughts into severe ones, and severe ones into unprecedented ones.
How climate change reduces river flow
In our study, we found the period from 2000 to 2014 is the worst 15-year drought since 1906, when official flow measurements began. During these years, annual flows in the Colorado River averaged 19 percent below the 20th-century average.
During a similar 15-year drought in the 1950s, annual flows declined by 18 percent. But during that drought, the region was drier: rainfall decreased by about 6 percent, compared to 4.5 percent between 2000 and 2014. Why, then, is the recent drought the most severe on record?
The answer is simple: higher temperatures. From 2000 to 2014, temperatures in the Upper Basin, where most of the runoff that feeds the Colorado River is produced, were 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the 20th-century average. This is why we call this event a hot drought. High temperatures continued in 2015 and 2016, as did less-than-average flows. Runoff in 2017 is expected to be above average, but this will only modestly improve reservoir volumes.
High temperatures affect river levels in many ways. Coupled with earlier snow melt, they lead to a longer growing season, which means more days of water demand from plants. Higher temperatures also increase daily plant water use and evaporation from water bodies and soils. In sum, as it warms, the atmosphere draws more water, up to 4 percent more per degree Fahrenheit from all available sources, so less water flows into the river. These findings also apply to all semi-arid rivers in the American Southwest, especially the Rio Grande.
A hotter, drier future
Knowing the relationship between warming and river flow, we can project how the Colorado will be affected by future climate change. Temperature projections from climate models are robust scientific findings based on well-tested physics. In the Colorado River Basin, temperatures are projected to warm by 5°F, compared to the 20th-century average, by midcentury in scenarios that assume either modest or high greenhouse gas emissions. By the end of this century, the region would be 9.5°F warmer if global greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced.
Using simple but strong relationships derived from hydrology models, which were buttressed by observations, we and our colleagues calculated how river flows are affected by higher temperatures. We found that Colorado River flows decline by about 4 percent per degree Fahrenheit increase, which is roughly the same amount as the increased atmospheric water vapor holding capacity discussed above. Thus, warming could reduce water flow in the Colorado by 20 percent or more below the 20th-century average by midcentury, and by as much as 40 percent by the end of the century. Emission reductions could ease the magnitude of warming by 2100 from 9.5°F to 6.5°F, which would reduce river flow by approximately 25 percent.
Large precipitation increases could counteract the declines that these all-but-certain future temperature increases will cause. But for that to happen, precipitation would have to increase by an average of 8 percent at midcentury and 15 percent by 2100.
On a year-in, year-out basis, these large increases would be substantial. The largest decade-long increases in precipitation in the 20th century were 8 percent. When such an increase occurred over 10 years in the Colorado Basin in the 1980s, it caused large-scale flooding that threatened the structural stability of Glen Canyon Dam, due to a spillway failure not unlike the recent collapse at California’s Oroville Dam.
For several reasons, we think these large precipitation increases will not occur. The Colorado River Basin and other areas around the globe at essentially the same latitudes, such as the Mediterranean region and areas of Chile, South Africa and Australia, are especially at risk for drying because they lie immediately poleward of the planet’s major deserts. These deserts are projected to stretch polewards as the climate warms. In the Colorado River basin, dry areas to the south are expected to encroach on some of the basin’s most productive snow and runoff areas.
Moreover, climate models do not agree on whether future precipitation in the Colorado Basin will increase or decrease, let alone by how much. Rain gauge measurements indicate that there has not been any significant long-term change in precipitation in the Upper Basin of the Colorado since 1896, which makes substantial increases in the future even more doubtful.
Megadroughts, which last anywhere from 20 to 50 years or more, provide yet another reason to avoid putting too much faith in precipitation increases. We know from tree-ring studies going back to A.D. 800 that megadroughts have occurred previously in the basin.
Several new studies indicate that with warmer temperatures, the likelihood of megadroughts skyrockets in the 21st century, to a point where the odds of one occurring are better than 80 percent. So while we might have periods with average or above-average precipitation, it also seems likely that we will have decades with less flow than normal.
Planning for lower flows
March of 2017 was the warmest March in Colorado history, with temperatures a stunning 8.8°F above normal. Snowpack and expected runoff declined substantially in the face of this record warmth. Clearly, climate change in the Colorado River Basin is here, it is serious and it requires multiple responses.
It takes years to implement new water agreements, so states, cities and major water users should start to plan now for significant temperature-induced flow declines. With the Southwest’s ample renewable energy resources and low costs for producing solar power, we can also lead the way in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, inducing other regions to do the same. Failing to act on climate change means accepting the very high risk that the Colorado River Basin will continue to dry up into the future.
Flirting With Disaster: Eroding Sewer Pipe Threatens Santa Cruz River
The International Outfall Interceptor (the “IOI”) sewage pipe is in danger of rupturing, spewing raw sewage and industrial waste over the poor border city of Nogales, Arizona, and into the Santa Cruz River watershed. The Federal government needs to fix the problem, caused by years of neglect, overuse, and sediment flows largely from across the border in Nogales, Mexico.
To draw attention to the major international issue, FOSCR has commissioned a video, Flirting With Disaster.”
Binational sewage pipe (“IOI”) through Ambos Nogales needs repair SOON!
If the IOI breaks, the whole population of Nogales, Arizona will be exposed to raw sewage and industrial waste since it is downstream of Nogales, Sonora and the IOI runs right through the city.
Plans are already in place for a partial fix (“cure-in-place pipe”). They only need the funds released to proceed.
Nogales, AZ is a small, poor city that uses only a small part of the IOI and most of sewage in IOI is Mexican.
Nogales, Sonora has serious drainage problems that need IBWC intervention to fix so erosion damage to border infrastructure like the IOI is minimized.
It is the International Boundary and Water Commission’s (IBWC) job to protect our border environment. Congress needs to fund it so it can do its job to protect Americans from real border threats.
How You Can Help:
1. Please share this video with your friends and on social media!
2. Contact these public officials. Feel free to use the “Critical Issues” above as your talking points.
McCain, Flake, McSally Introduce Bill to Unburden Nogales, Arizona From IOI Pipeline Costs
Washington, D.C. March 8, 2017– U.S. Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) this week introduced in the Senate the Nogales Wastewater Fairness Act, legislation that would transfer the unfair financial burden of maintenance and capital upgrades of the International Outfall Interceptor (IOI) sewage pipeline located underneath the Nogales Wash along the Arizona-Mexico border from the city of Nogales, Arizona, to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC). Representative Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) also introduced companion legislation in the House of Representatives.
Under an existing agreement between the IBWC and Nogales, the city is currently responsible for a disproportionate percentage of the operating costs of the IOI. The Nogales Wastewater Fairness Act would transfer future capital costs to the IBWC while holding the city of Nogales responsible only for its equitable proportion of operation and maintenance costs that would be fairly split based on the city’s average sewage flow.
“At its core, the 1953 financial arrangement between Nogales and IBWC is outdated and unfair,” said Senator McCain. “Nogales residents should not have to pay for runoff and sewage not under their control. Our bill finally brings fairness to the people of Nogales who are dealing with out-of-touch bureaucrats mismanaging this crumbling infrastructure.”
“The burden of wastewater infrastructure operated pursuant to a U.S.-Mexico treaty should not fall disproportionately on the City of Nogales,” said Senator Flake. “This bill resets the cost-share to reflect the proper obligations of the IBWC.”
“Nogales has shouldered an unfair burden in paying for the operation and maintenance of this pipeline for too long,” said Rep. McSally. “I am happy to join Senator McCain today in introducing the Nogales Wastewater Fairness Act. This legislation will help address a longstanding problem and I look forward to working alongside him to get this passed through Congress and onto the President’s desk.”
“We are grateful for the tremendous support from Senators McCain and Flake and Congresswoman McSally on this effort,” said Guillermo Valencia, Chairman of the Greater Nogales Santa Cruz County Port Authority. “The Greater Nogales Santa Cruz County Port Authority has for many years advocated for the urgent need to address the issue of the IOI and after trips to Washington, D.C., arranging numerous site visits and meetings with many stakeholders, we are extremely glad to see the Senator take the lead to provide a solution. This is an issue that impacts the quality of life of the residents of Nogales, Arizona. But it also has a direct impact on the lives of the residents of Nogales, Mexico, and the entire Nogales-Tucson corridor. The significance of this legislation cannot be overstated.”
A recent High Country News article entitled, “Where the wild things swim—again. In a borderlands river, improved water quality allows an endangered fish to return” highlighted the return of the Gila Top Minnow. The Top Minnow—an endangered species—has been discovered again in the Santa Cruz River thanks to the release of effluent from the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant.